Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,539$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(682 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,242.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,242.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(27.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $282$ on 2020-06-26

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,486$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,572.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,572.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,917.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,917.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $524$ on 2020-06-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,961$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,876.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,876.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,708$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,645.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,645.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,638$ on 2020-06-26

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,467,554$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,347,264.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 60.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,347,264.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $125,039$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,377.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(118,377.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,671,706$ on 2020-06-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $310,836$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,926.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(300,926.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,498$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(8.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,283.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(41,283.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $265,975$ on 2020-06-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,688.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.7)}}\) (asimptote \(85,688.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(815 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,076.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,076.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-26

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $194,036$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,987.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(181,987.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,965$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,655.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,655.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,922$ on 2020-06-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 100%
Chad recovered 97%
Cuba recovered 93%
Malaysia recovered 93%
Malta recovered 92%
Estonia recovered 91%
Djibouti recovered 90%
Uganda recovered 87%
Italy recovered 84%
Lithuania recovered 78%
Turkey recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 71%
Georgia recovered 66%
Sri Lanka recovered 59%
Hungary recovered 57%
Qatar recovered 53%
United Arab Emirates recovered 35%
Belarus recovered 31%
Tajikistan recovered 28%
Canada recovered 20%
Sierra Leone recovered 18%
Iran recovered 15%
Poland recovered 12%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(185 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{696.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(696.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-06-26

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $865$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(28.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.4}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-26

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,325$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(607 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,194.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,194.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-06-26

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,606$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,195.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,195.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(57.8 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(116.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $191$ on 2020-06-26