Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,539$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(682 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,242.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,242.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(27.5 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $282$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,486$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,572.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,572.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(567 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,917.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,917.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $524$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $239,961$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(6.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232,876.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(232,876.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,708$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(8.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,645.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(33,645.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,638$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,467,554$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.95 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,347,264.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 60.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,347,264.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $125,039$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,377.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(118,377.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,671,706$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $310,836$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,926.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(300,926.7\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,498$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(8.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,283.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(41,283.9\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $265,975$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,688.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.7)}}\) (asimptote \(85,688.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(815 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,076.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,076.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $194,036$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,987.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(181,987.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,965$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,655.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,655.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,922$ on 2020-06-26